Mwai Kibaki vs Raila Odinga

Presided over a revenue-led recovery and Vision 2030: state investment in roads and energy, with private-sector growth as the engine. (medium confidence)

As Prime Minister backed state programmes such as the Kazi Kwa Vijana youth-jobs scheme. His ministerial spells left a thin economic record. (low confidence)

Adopted a National Land Policy in 2009, and the 2010 Constitution created a National Land Commission. Little land was actually redistributed. Free primary education pushes the other way. (low confidence)

Signed the 2010 Constitution (devolution, a stronger judiciary, a Bill of Rights). Earlier backed a 2005 draft that kept a powerful presidency, and was sworn in within an hour of the disputed 2007 result. (medium confidence)

Detained for years under Moi during the fight for multiparty politics, led the 2005 'No' campaign against a strong-presidency draft and backed the 2010 Constitution. Then co-led BBI, which courts ruled unconstitutional. (medium confidence)

A senior establishment figure for decades, though he left KANU in 1991 to lead the opposition Democratic Party. (medium confidence)

Alternated between confronting and joining government: merged his party into KANU in 2002, joined the Grand Coalition in 2008, the 2018 handshake, and cooperation with Ruto's government from 2025. (high confidence)

Media space widened after 2002, but police raided the Standard Group in 2006 and the Waki Commission documented police killings in the 2007 to 2008 crisis. (medium confidence)

Detained without trial 1982 to 1988, 1988 to 1989 and 1990 to 1991, and kept organising. Protests he called were met with police force that rights groups documented. (medium confidence)